Is 100% Absolute?

Disclaimer: I am not talking about self-confidence in this post, but the psychological condition of overconfidence. Self confidence is good, but overconfidence, although a common human trait, is not so good.

Have you ever been absolutely sure that you were right about something, only to find out you were wrong? I'll raise my hand on that one, and if you're human, you will too. If you don't raise your hand, I've got news for you...you're wrong. Or an alien.

The Overconfidence Effect is a well-proven bias that basically shows that when you think you're 100% right, you're actually wrong about 40% of the time. In the case of the chase, I'd be willing to bet you can raise that 40% to about...well, as of right now, 100%. There are searchers in all four states who are absolutely convinced they're 100% right in their solves.

The thing is, our human brain is prone to thinking we are greater than we actually are. We're smarter than Joe Schmoe next door. We're better at thinking out of the box. We're more unique than anyone else. Our own way of thinking is different than that searcher in Washington, Texas, Missouri, and California, and for that matter, everyone else's. Our solve is the correct solve, because it matches every single vague word in the poem.

But is that accurate thinking, or merely subjective?

If you think it's accurate, you're wrong. It's subjective. Our brains are calibrated subjectively, meaning that basically, our brains are not computers, but influenced by emotion, belief, confidence, and other things--all subjective, all prone to error.

You cannot be 100% sure you are correct, no matter how confident you are. You can go with confidence to the chest, but does that mean you are 100% right? Does that mean those that are 100% correct searching in the other 3 states are wrong?

Nope. Scientifically, it more than likely means you're wrong. The Overconfidence Effect preys on even the most confident of us. No one is exempt. If you feel you are exempt, you're most likely suffering the most from this human condition.

The Overconfidence Effect can be further broken down into different categories of "wrongness." You can be a wishful thinker--you think you're more likely than others to experience positive results because of egocentricity. It's something we all suffer from, some to a greater extent than others. We know ourselves, and fail to see others in the sense that they also know themselves like we know ourselves. We tend to see ourselves in a singular light, and others in a group of gray ambiguity.

We can also feel we're right because we deserve to be right. If there is one right answer, and only one person can have the right answer, who is the most deserving? You might say, "The one who worked the hardest." You might be right. But lots of people have worked hard. There's no way to judge who worked the hardest.

Some people might say, "I deserve to be right because I'm a good person; I have maintained the integrity of the purpose of the task. I haven't cheated or deceived. So I deserve to be right." Well, you might be right, too.

Or you might say, "I deserve this because I have been wronged so often in the past, and I really, really need something to be right in my life right now." And yes, you might be right, too.

But, the unfortunate truth is, whether or not you deserve to be right doesn't determine whether you will be successful in being right.

It doesn't take much to be wrong. I took some Greek and Hebrew classes when I was in my twenties. I think the professor's favorite saying was, "If I'm dropped into the middle of the wilderness with just a compass, and there is one way out, and to find the way out, only the compass must be used, I cannot get out by being 'almost perfect.' If I am one click off, I will die in the wilderness, because being even one click (one tiny notch on the compass) off, I'll miss the mark."

I bet they know 100%...

The Overconfidence Effect can have dire results, even death. War is a good example of this phenomenon. Countries go to war when they are confident they will win. America's overconfidence resulted in tragic casualties in Vietnam. Thomas Andrews , the designer of the Titanic, along with the White Star Line, were also overconfident, with catastrophic results. I'll concede that if Harland and Wolff had heeded Andrews' recommendation of 46 (instead of 20) lifeboats, and a double hull, many lives could have been saved. However, when all was said and done, Andrews, in a euphoric moment of overconfidence, said the Titanic was "as nearly perfect as human brains can make her."

Unfortunately for those on board that cold, fateful night, human brains are far from perfect.

"Overconfident professionals sincerely believe they have expertise, act as experts, and look like experts. You will have to struggle to remind yourself that they may be in the grip of an illusion." Daniel Kahneman

Sorry, I couldn't help myself. I'm an imperfect human. :)

So, being confident is one thing. It's good to be positive, to be content, to work hard, and to "go with confidence."

But being 100% convinced of an answer before having the proof in your hands does not mean you are 100% right.  Beware overconfidence. Take it from one who knows...